True or False? Iowa Football Struggles in Games on the West Coast 8/26/2020 - As a lifelong Iowa fan, I always felt that the football team struggled winning games on the West Coast. I would bet most fans would agree with that statement. After setting up this website, it is now easier for me to gather data on questions like this, to see if this is true or not. Often times perceptions don't match reality, so I wanted to see what the facts are, including whether we were favored in the game or not, which often isn't discussed much in bowl game records. Iowa often draws more difficult opponents because we can bring lots of fans to the game, and that moves us up into better bowl games, instead of games where we are more evenly matched. I pulled all the modern games from the Kirk Ferentz and Hayden Fry era to keep it simple, ignoring any games before 1979. Here are the games I found that matched the criteria of "West Coast" (Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii). I debated including the 1992 game at Colorado, but decided to leave it out. HAYDEN FRY GAMES Date Opponent and Rank Location Bowl Game? Iowa Odds Score Outcome Notes 1/1/1982 #12 Iowa vs #13 Washington Pasadena, CA Rose Even Matchup 0-28 BAD LOSS Outmatched 9/25/1982 Iowa @ Arizona Tucson, AZ No Even Matchup 17-14 GOOD WIN Tough win 12/1/1984 Iowa @ Hawaii Honolulu, HI No Even Matchup 17-6 WIN Hawaii finished 7-4 12/26/1984 Iowa vs #19 Texas Anaheim, CA Freedom Not Favored 55-17 GOOD WIN Blowout win 1/1/1986 #4 Iowa @ #13 UCLA Pasadena, CA Rose Favored 28-45 BAD LOSS UCLA's home stadium 12/30/1986 #19 Iowa vs San Diego State San Diego, CA Holiday Favored 39-38 WIN SDSU home stadium 9/12/1987 Iowa @ Arizona Tucson, AZ No Even Matchup 15-14 WIN Tough win 12/30/1987 #18 Iowa vs Wyoming San Diego, CA Holiday Favored 20-19 WIN Tough win 9/3/1988 #9 Iowa @ Hawaii Honolulu, HI No Favored 24-27 LOSS Tough loss 1/1/1991 #17 Iowa vs #8 Washington Pasadena, CA Rose Not Favored 34-46 BAD LOSS Blowout early then came back 12/30/1991 #7 Iowa vs BYU San Diego, CA Holiday Favored 10-10 BAD TIE Late INT salvaged tie 9/24/1994 Iowa @ Oregon Eugene, OR No Not Favored 18-40 BAD LOSS Oregon won Pac-10, no bowl for Iowa 9/19/1998 Iowa @ #16 Arizona Tucson, AZ No Not Favored 11-35 LOSS Fry's last year, no bowl game Hayden Fry Summary - His record at Iowa was 143-89-6 (61.3%). In West Coast games, he was 6-6-1 (about 50% win record). What really stands out is the three difficult Rose Bowl losses, versus the two Holiday Bowl wins and the Freedom Bowl win. In bowl games, he was 3-3-1 (lost 3 Rose Bowls). There were also two wins against Arizona that people forget about (1982 and 1987). If you just looked at games we SHOULD have won based on record and ranking, there were 5 games we were favored, 4 games evenly matched, and 4 games we were not favored (underdogs). Based on that, they would have won half the evenly matched games, won the 5 favored games, and lost the games we were underdogs. They would have likely had a 7-6 record, so I'm concluding that Fry did not have a problem with playing in the west coast except for Rose Bowl games. KIRK FERENTZ GAMES Date Opponent and Rank Location Bowl Game? Iowa Odds Score Outcome Notes 9/18/2004 #16 Iowa @ Arizona State Tempe, AZ No Favored 7-44 BAD LOSS ASU finished 9-3 on the season 9/18/2010 #9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona Tuscon, AZ No Favored 27-34 LOSS Disappointing season after high expectations 12/28/2010 Iowa vs #14 Missouri Tempe, AZ Insight Not Favored 27-24 GOOD WIN Disappointing season after high expectations 12/30/2011 Iowa vs #19 Oklahoma Tempe, AZ Insight Not Favored 14-31 LOSS Average team overmatched 1/1/2016 #6 Iowa vs #5 Stanford Pasadena, CA Rose Even Matchup 16-45 BAD LOSS Game was over in 1st Qtr 12/27/2019 #16 Iowa vs #22 USC San Diego, CA Holiday Even Matchup 49-24 GOOD WIN Iowa dominated entire game Kirk Ferentz Summary - His record as of 2019 at Iowa is 162-104 (60.9%). Overall, he had much fewer games on the west coast compared to Hayden Fry (partly by choice, some by chance), even though they both have/had coached about 20 seasons. In West Coast games, he was 2-4 (33% win record). He had two really bad losses (2004 ASU and 2016 Rose Bowl), but beat USC last year and Missouri in 2010. The loss to Oklahoma wasn't much of a surprise. The Arizona loss was still an upset, but given a road game against a former Hawkeye (Mike Stoops), and getting down by 20 points in the game, they played well in the 2nd half, so I'm not considering that one a "bad loss." In bowl games, he was 2-2 (lost 1 Rose Bowl and 1 Insight Bowl). If you just looked at games they SHOULD have won based on record and ranking, there was 2 games we were favored (ASU and Arizona), 2 games evenly matched, and 2 games we were not favored (underdogs). Based on that, they would have won half the evenly matched games, won the 2 favored games, and lost the games we were underdogs. That would have likely had a 3-3 record, so it seems like we did about the same as expected given the matchups (one more loss instead of a win), not a result of the climate or time zone. I'm concluding that Ferentz also did not have a problem with playing in the west coast except for the ASU game (which he said impacted future games scheduled on the west coast). The lopsided loss in the 2016 Rose Bowl was also very painful as a fan, given the dream season they had. Perhaps Ferentz is including his experience with Coach Fry in his memory when reflecting back on past trips to the West Coast. In conclusion, I don't see any clear evidence that Iowa has a higher or lower chance of winning games on the West Coast, much to my own surprise. The other topic I thought about was bowl game victories versus the quality of the opponent. I did a quick look at the bowl games under Ferentz and Fry. For Fry, he was 6-7-1 in bowl games. Of those games, he was 2-3 as an underdog (other team ranked much higher), 1-3 when evenly matched (unranked or rankings were close), and 3-1-1 in games we were favored (had a higher ranking). Using the logic above, they SHOULD have ended with a record of 7-7, which is almost identical to what he had (except for the BYU tie in 1991). For Ferentz, he is 10-9 in bowl games through 2022. Of those games, he also is 2-4 as an underdog, 8-5 when evenly matched, and I didn't see any games where they were considered favorites (maybe 2017 Pinstripe vs Boston College?). With that logic, they SHOULD have been 6-13 or 7-12 in bowl games, so Ferentz teams have actually done better than that by 3 games. I think that is often overlooked because of the strength of the opponents. What do you think? Am I missing something? Did I forget a game?