Hawks Good at Turnovers, But Can Do Better 8/30/2022 - We know how important turnover margin is to winning in football, and the Hawks have been really good at it over the past few years TeamRankings.com - Turnover Margin 2021: 5th (+0.9) 2020: 6th (+1.1) 2019: 17th (+0.7) 2018: 10th (+0.8) 2017: 26th (+0.5) 2016: 29th (+0.5) 2015: 8th (+0.9) Most of this success is from interceptions, where Iowa has ranked very highly over these same years (except 2016): TeamRankings.com - Interceptions Per Game 2021: 1st (1.8) 2020: 11th (1.4) 2019: 34th (0.9) 2018: 3rd (1.6) 2017: 2nd (1.6) 2016: 89th (0.7) 2015: 7th (1.5) However, that doesn't mean Iowa can rest on its past success. Continuous improvement is they key, and a breakdown of the 2021 season can provide insights on what they are doing well (need to maintain), and where there may be more opportunities. As an example, I found all the turnovers on YouTube (given up and caused) from the 2021 season, and categorized each as best as I could. This is similar to what I do in business consulting, where we look at errors or mistakes and put them into categories. Here is a summary of the turnover data, along with my categorization. Click the link to watch the actual clip of the turnover, and see if you agree with my categorization. Team Opp Turnover Type Immediate Cause Video Clip Opp Indiana Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/n7AkeWl2iMg?t=120 Iowa Indiana Fumble Stripped during tackle https://youtu.be/n7AkeWl2iMg?t=493 Iowa Indiana Fumble Contact with ball https://youtu.be/n7AkeWl2iMg?t=951 Opp Indiana Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/n7AkeWl2iMg?t=561 Opp Indiana Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/lEdouODmBK8?t=192 Iowa Kent State Fumble Contact with ball https://youtu.be/bsacNEbAp24?t=271 Iowa Colorado State Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/yUMZsrcbWno?t=408 Opp Iowa State Interception Underthrown Ball https://youtu.be/hxsHZKRvFao?t=38 Opp Iowa State Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/hxsHZKRvFao?t=105 Opp Iowa State Interception Deflected by player https://youtu.be/WLqxdn1vIjI?t=6401 Opp Iowa State Fumble Contact with ball https://youtu.be/hxsHZKRvFao?t=94 Opp Kent State Fumble Contact with ball https://youtu.be/bsacNEbAp24?t=827 Opp Colorado State Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/yUMZsrcbWno?t=557 Opp Maryland Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=151 Opp Maryland Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=615 Opp Maryland Interception Deflected by player https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=465 Opp Maryland Interception Underthrown Ball https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=910 Opp Maryland Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=1331 Opp Maryland Interception Overthrown Ball https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=1502 Opp Maryland Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/llcdaMilBr0?t=385 Opp Penn State Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/kSRuZJhDkHY?t=56 Opp Penn State Interception Forced pass into coverage https://youtu.be/kSRuZJhDkHY?t=268 Opp Penn State Interception Overthrown Ball https://youtu.be/kSRuZJhDkHY?t=629 Opp Penn State Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/kSRuZJhDkHY?t=1172 Iowa Penn State Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/kSRuZJhDkHY?t=317 Iowa Purdue Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/LqxCH8AFQZw?t=39 Iowa Purdue Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/LqxCH8AFQZw?t=1034 Iowa Purdue Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/LqxCH8AFQZw?t=1088 Iowa Purdue Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/LqxCH8AFQZw?t=1124 Opp Purdue Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/LqxCH8AFQZw?t=762 Iowa Wisconsin Fumble QB stripped in pocket https://youtu.be/w9WdE4C-B2o?t=233 Iowa Wisconsin Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/w9WdE4C-B2o?t=326 Iowa Wisconsin Fumble Muffed punt https://youtu.be/w9WdE4C-B2o?t=407 Opp Northwestern Interception Overthrown Ball https://youtu.be/76Yt0nA8PMI?t=1114 Opp Northwestern Interception Underthrown Ball https://youtu.be/76Yt0nA8PMI?t=1260 Opp Northwestern Interception Underthrown Ball https://youtu.be/DJzZ-MhXntE?t=65 Iowa Minnesota Fumble Stripped during tackle https://youtu.be/JfsiAauQyyA?t=485 Iowa Illinois Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/ltDVxkWSKHE?t=551 Opp Illinois Interception Overthrown Ball https://youtu.be/ltDVxkWSKHE?t=1043 Opp Illinois Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/ltDVxkWSKHE?t=1161 Iowa Nebraska Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/4lR1zwlZwmM?t=695 Opp Nebraska Fumble Unforced https://youtu.be/4lR1zwlZwmM?t=972 Opp Nebraska Interception Anticipated pass from QB https://youtu.be/4lR1zwlZwmM?t=1285 Iowa Michigan Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/i_aaUK11IiQ?t=1139 Opp Michigan Interception Bounced off receiver https://youtu.be/i_aaUK11IiQ?t=359 Opp Michigan Interception Unforced https://youtu.be/i_aaUK11IiQ?t=669 Iowa Kentucky Interception Deflected by player https://youtu.be/BXwQC0zYvVM?t=130 Iowa Kentucky Interception Unforced https://youtu.be/BXwQC0zYvVM?t=158 Iowa Kentucky Interception Overthrown Ball https://youtu.be/BXwQC0zYvVM?t=478 Opp Kentucky Interception Underthrown Ball https://youtu.be/BXwQC0zYvVM?t=350 Once the categorization is complete, we can create a Pareto chart to prioritize what is not going well (for turnovers given up), or what is working well (turnovers caused). I created Pareto charts for Iowa caused interceptions and fumbles, and Iowa turnovers given up by interceptions and fumbles. Let's start with Interceptions: "Bounced off receiver" and "Anticipated pass from QB" are the top 2 reasons why the Iowa offense gave up an interception. If they focus on those 2 reasons, the key would be to have the QB practice keeping the ball under the chin of the receiver during practice, and making sure the QB is looking off the defenders, so they don't track the QB's eyes and anticipate the throw. What's working well for the Iowa defense in causing interceptions is "Underthrown Ball" and "Forced pass into coverage." The defensive schemes and practice routines are leading to these type of interceptions, so they need to make sure not to let up on that. What we can learn from this data is that "Deflected by player" and "Unforced" are not generating many interceptions, so more time at practice could be spent on lineman getting their hands up during pass plays, and looking at new schemes to force poor passes by the opposing QB. Let's take a look at Fumbles: Fumbles given up by the Iowa offense come from a variety of reasons, and there weren't that many (only 8 last year), so I would conclude that they're doing a good job of not fumbling. We can also slice-and-dice the data in other ways, such as a breakdown by player. 3 fumbles were from Ivory Kelly-Martin, 2 from Tyler Goodson and 1 from Spencer Petras, Max Cooper and Nico Ragaini. Two of Kelly-Martin's fumbles occurred early in the season, and his playing time suffered greatly as a result. It's obvious that Kirk Ferentz values ball possession, and playing time for players that fumble is one way he tries to minimize that. The Iowa defense only caused 6 fumbles in 2021, which means there is a lot of room for improvement. 4 of those fumbles I categorized as "Unforced" which is hard to plan for. There may be other causes for those fumbles, but these are not really a result of the defensive scheme or any individual effort. So you could say that only 2 fumbles were really caused by the defense all season. Therefore, the biggest opportunity for Iowa to improve its turnover margin is to force more fumbles, since it's unrealistic to think they can force more interceptions. A focus in practice should be to make more contact with the ball (once the player has been held up). I don't remember seeing that happen very much. No one seems to be trying to jar the ball loose, or trying to strip or rip the ball from the runner. We're also are not seeing many attempts to strip the ball and cause the QB to fumble during pass rushes. Those could be emphasized more during practice, and given as a reminder during the game. The defense has been excellent, and they do a great job with form tackling, but a little more effort on trying to cause a fumble could have huge benefits. What do you think? Do you agree with my categorizations? What in this data stands out to you?     SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT THIS ARTICLE